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Powerball Australia Odds of Winning

Here’s some food for thought. Tatts has a lot of information out there on the chances of YOU winning. I’m interested in what are the chances of Tatts drawing numbers where NOBODY wins 1st division (that is, they get to jackpot to larger draws, that encourage progressively larger ticket sales).

To put it a different way, what are Tatts’ chances of winning?

It’s nearly impossible to find any statistics that state how many games or tickets are purchased (indeed, we’d probably be horrified by these stats so I’m sure they’re suppressed to the nth degree). But we can probably assume some rough ideas on this based on the starting kitty for a particular game, and then the progressive jackpot increments.

This is rough logic, but here goes. Given the most recent $50m Powerball jackpot a single winner, Draw 1001 with a single $50m winner in WA.. take a step back to Draw 1000.

There was no Division 1 winner (hence the jackpot). In Draw 1000 there was a total of approx. $12.54 million paid in Div2-Div8 prizes. Each game played in Powerball costs $0.92 (inc commission). So we have to assume there were at least 13,630,000 games played to even cover the division pay outs.

Let’s now consider three things:

1) Tatts pays a flat 9.3% gross commission to outlets on ticket sales. So we need to inflate the above figure by 9.3% to cover that ‘commission’. I’d consider that even for online sales, which I assume Tatts is pocketing the regular franchise commission directly. Roughly speaking, another 1.28m games to cover commission costs. So that’s 14.91 million games played.

2) The Jackpot moved from $40m to $50m. That means they had at least another $10m (and 10.87 million losing entries) to cover the jackpot increase, increasing the total number of games played to 25.78m games played.

3) Tatts is a ‘for profit’ company. In fact, ASX listed and with hungry shareholders. Every draw produces profit for Tatts, outside of money going into divisions, jackpots and franchise commissions. Those profits float the company and line the pockets of shareholders. A recent SMH article cited: “Tatts’ half-year profit rise was boosted by record lottery earnings to rise 14.6 per cent to $139.2 million in the six months ended December 31, 2014”. 10% of this was online sales, assumed in (1) above as commission (the article refers this as a growth driver). It’s hard math, but on a rough estimate Tatts likely takes a 10% cut of ticket sales and commissions across the board. Per (2) above we have to assume another 10.87m tickets. This takes us to 36.56m games played.

So I’d call 36.56m games played as highly conservative on Draw 1000. So let’s turn to the Powerball official odds of winning.

The official Tatts Powerball odds of winning, based on 1 game, is 76,767,600:1 .. they publish the odds of winning in 12 games as 6,397,300:1 .. dividing the odds of 1 game by 12. Simple math. Let’s do the same thing.

Tatts’ odds of drawing numbers NOT played in Draw 1000 (causing the $50m jackpot) were, at a conservative estimate, the number of games played against the odds of one entry winning.

76,767,600:36,560,000 … divided:  2:1.01 .. marginally, 50%. They fairly much managed, on the flip of a coin, to draw numbers nobody had. On a conservative estimate. Now THAT’S LUCKY! Give me some of that luck, please!

Further, they’ve managed that “luck of the draw” 50% twice in the last few months with two $50m Powerball jackpots in the space of a few months.

Based on the above – it gets really murky when you consider the increased # games played and stakes in the $50m draw itself, and the sheer odds that only one person would have the correct numbers and take out first division alone, on a single entry.

Your chances of winning a pitiful Division 8 prize on a single entry are 110:1 .. 10:1 for a 12 game quick pick. 10% chance of winning. How many times have you bought a 50 game quick pick and not even managed Division 8?

In closing, from the horse’s mouth (no pun intended given Tatts’ TAB), they stated in their annual report “In the first half Tatts offered 15 large jackpots, compared with 22 in the same period last year. The company said this hampered lotteries revenue growth”

In other words, the more frequent the larger jackpots, the better the profits and investor returns.

So, it’s much better if people like you don’t win their lotteries, and that’s both a strategic vision of the company and an earnest hope of those who run it and market these lotteries to you with every tactic to tap into your hopes, dreams and convince you that you’ve got a chance in hell of winning.

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Powerball Australia – Two Lucky $50m Winners 2015

Here’s a bit more food for thought… in the last six months we’ve had two Powerball $50m jackpots go to a single first division winner. One in Canberra, one in WA. That’s right, the whole $50m jackpot to a single ticket entry. The Canberra ticket was supposedly won a $5.55 ticket. Bet that makes you regular players and supporters of these games and syndicate entries feel awesome!

Think about the sheer number of entries – then park that, and think about the huge number of supposedly better odds system entries and massive syndicate entries. You know, the ones your local agent and Tatts advocate as a much better chance of winning. That didn’t win in either case. I’ve seen $1,300 powerball syndicates on sale for both draws (10 shares), $130,000 tickets a piece, that netted jack squat.

In the last Powerball $50m jackpot draw I bought a $210 syndicate entry, and won $5.80. That’s just a shade more money to buy a $5.55 ticket that could “scoop” me $50m! WINNING!

 

Categories: Powerball

Tattslotto Results – 21st April (21/4) 2012

April 21, 2012 1 comment

It’s been a week long of playing every Tattersalls lottery game and winning nothing, culminating in yet another Saturday Tattslotto loss.

My total losses playing Tatts Lotteries in 2012 is now over $7,500. Here’s some interesting statistics for you:

In 2012, I’ve played a total (across all lotteries – Mon/Wed, Super 7’s, Powerball & Saturday Lotto) of 16,904 games. And how many times I have I won? Largely floated by Division 6 / 7, 203 wins. Across all lotteries the average return against published odds, across this number of games, is 64% – meaning that the odds I’ve experienced playing Tatts games has been some 36% WORSE than what is published.

Here’s the scorecard for Saturday Tattslotto – as you can see, it’s returned less than 31% of the money I’ve spent in winnings (based on the $ spent this means I’ve lost over $2,500 on Saturday Lotto alone).

Saturday Tattslotto Odds
Summary of my odds playing Tattersalls Tattslotto in 2012
$ Spent Playing $3,616.80
$ Won $1,095.55
Net Position (Negative = Lost) -$2,521.25
% Return in Dollars 30.29%
# Games Played 5742
# Games Won 68
Odds Experienced: 1 in 84
Tatts Claimed Odds: 1 in 53
% Difference To Tatts Odds 63%
(Less than 100% means less returns than published odds suggest)
Total Lost In 2012 Playing Tatts Lotteries -$7,505.63

Approaching $7k Tatts Losses – Epic Fail on Saturday Lotto – No Wins

April 15, 2012 Leave a comment

Here’s the latest run-down of stats.  As you can see, I’m approaching nearly $7,000 lost playing Tatts lotteries in 2012. As I hit the $7k mark I’m feeling like it’s time to wind up this pointless ‘dreaming’ (AKA: being taken advantage of by Tatts).

Out of interest (and, not surprisingly) Saturday Lotto ripped me clean once more. The run-down of games I played is as follows:

3 x System 8, 23 x System 7, 100 x Standard Games

Out of interest, that’s around 345 games played. Winnings? ZERO. Making the odds result for this draw ZERO in 345.

My overall 2012 stats and odds for Saturday Tattslotto is as follows – continuing to track far worse than what Tatts claims on its “odds of winning”, returning 31% of money played (for Saturday Tattslotto alone I’ve lost over $2,430). I’ve played over 5,600 standard games of Saturday Tattslotto to generate these stats, averaged over every Tattslotto draw in 2012.

Saturday Tattslotto Odds
Summary of my odds playing Tattersalls Tattslotto in 2012
$ Spent Playing $3,525.80
$ Won $1,095.55
Net Position (Negative = Lost) -$2,430.25
% Return in Dollars 31.07%
# Games Played 5605
# Games Won 68
Odds Experienced: 1 in 82
Tatts Claimed Odds: 1 in 53
% Difference To Tatts Odds 64%
(Less than 100% means less returns than published odds suggest)
Total Lost In 2012 Playing Tatts Lotteries -$6,885.98

Super 7’s Oz Lotto $15m Jackpot – Pre-Draw Rundown

April 10, 2012 Leave a comment

Here comes another Super 7’s Oz Lotto jackpot – tonight $15m… “Imagine what you could do with $15 million dollars” (bold representing emphasis applied by voice over artist on Tattersalls lottery ads on radio).

Tonight’s draw sees me with $472.65 on the line, consisting of:

2 x System 9, 23 x System 8, 138 Standard Games

I’ve also got two syndicate entries:
6 x System 8’s
1 x System 10, 1 x System 9, 3 x System 8

I typically don’t record the syndicate entries in my ‘player stats’ and odds run-down. I’ll look into incorporating these, but will need to work out a fair way to represent the # games won based on the syndicate # players and prizes paid out… oh, wait a minute, what am I worried about – these lotteries just suck the money out of you and don’t pay out jack shit.

 

Tatts Monday Lotto – Odds now 5 times WORSE than published

April 10, 2012 Leave a comment

Apologies for the hiatus in publishing this blog. My internet got suspended and my car broke down, causing significant financial stress. Here’s the latest odds update following Monday night’s lotto draw – as you can see, the odds I’ve experienced playing Monday Lotto every night in 2012 have proven extremely poor and nothing like what is published by Tattersalls.

These odds are taken over 2,200 games played in 14 draws, and show just how poor the odds are proving, despite Tatts claims that the new Division 6 means “more winners”. I’m not sure how that can be, given the odds are only 19% of what they’re publishing and the ‘winnings’ returned are less than 17%.

Monday Lotto Odds
Summary of my odds playing Tattersalls Monday Lotto in 2012
$ Spent Playing $1,075.90
$ Won $181.80
Net Position (Negative = Lost) -$894.10
% Return in Dollars 16.90%
# Games Played 2221
# Games Won 8
Odds Experienced: 1 in 278
Tatts Claimed Odds: 1 in 53
% Difference To Tatts Odds 19%
(Less than 100% means less returns than published odds suggest)
Total Lost In 2012 Across All Tatts Lotteries -$6,910.39

Monday Lotto 2/4/12 – $115.25 Lost, Odds 400% Worse Than Published By Tatts

Tonight’s Monday lotto draw – spent $115.25 on tickets, being:
2 x System 8, 18 x System 7, 30 Standard Games

After draw results – won absolutely nothing. Yet again. This brings my actual odds of playing Monday Lotto to only 1 win in 233. This is over four times worse than the odds published by Tattersalls for this game. I’ve played every Monday Lotto since the start of 2012 to accumulate these odds – so that’s over 3 months of draws, combinations of entries, and over $880 spent on tickets.

To me, this represents a fair section of data from which to compare the odds published by Tattersalls for Monday lotto. Those odds are 1:53. That assumes the lotteries are, indeed, completely random. This means my odds have been over 400% worse than what Tatts claims. How, therefore, can it be fair and reasonable to publish and promote the lottery on this basis?

Here’s my Monday Lotto breakdown FYI:

Monday Lotto Odds
Summary of my odds playing Tattersalls Monday Lotto in 2012
$ Spent Playing $882.80
$ Won $181.80
Net Position (Negative = Lost) -$701.00
% Return in Dollars 20.59%
# Games Played 1865
# Games Won 8
Odds Experienced: 1 in 233
Tatts Claimed Odds: 1 in 53
% Difference To Tatts Odds 23%
(Less than 100% means less returns than published odds suggest)
Total Lost In 2012 Across All Tatts Lotteries -$5,424.99