Here’s some food for thought. Tatts has a lot of information out there on the chances of YOU winning. I’m interested in what are the chances of Tatts drawing numbers where NOBODY wins 1st division (that is, they get to jackpot to larger draws, that encourage progressively larger ticket sales).
To put it a different way, what are Tatts’ chances of winning?
It’s nearly impossible to find any statistics that state how many games or tickets are purchased (indeed, we’d probably be horrified by these stats so I’m sure they’re suppressed to the nth degree). But we can probably assume some rough ideas on this based on the starting kitty for a particular game, and then the progressive jackpot increments.
This is rough logic, but here goes. Given the most recent $50m Powerball jackpot a single winner, Draw 1001 with a single $50m winner in WA.. take a step back to Draw 1000.
There was no Division 1 winner (hence the jackpot). In Draw 1000 there was a total of approx. $12.54 million paid in Div2-Div8 prizes. Each game played in Powerball costs $0.92 (inc commission). So we have to assume there were at least 13,630,000 games played to even cover the division pay outs.
Let’s now consider three things:
1) Tatts pays a flat 9.3% gross commission to outlets on ticket sales. So we need to inflate the above figure by 9.3% to cover that ‘commission’. I’d consider that even for online sales, which I assume Tatts is pocketing the regular franchise commission directly. Roughly speaking, another 1.28m games to cover commission costs. So that’s 14.91 million games played.
2) The Jackpot moved from $40m to $50m. That means they had at least another $10m (and 10.87 million losing entries) to cover the jackpot increase, increasing the total number of games played to 25.78m games played.
3) Tatts is a ‘for profit’ company. In fact, ASX listed and with hungry shareholders. Every draw produces profit for Tatts, outside of money going into divisions, jackpots and franchise commissions. Those profits float the company and line the pockets of shareholders. A recent SMH article cited: “Tatts’ half-year profit rise was boosted by record lottery earnings to rise 14.6 per cent to $139.2 million in the six months ended December 31, 2014”. 10% of this was online sales, assumed in (1) above as commission (the article refers this as a growth driver). It’s hard math, but on a rough estimate Tatts likely takes a 10% cut of ticket sales and commissions across the board. Per (2) above we have to assume another 10.87m tickets. This takes us to 36.56m games played.
So I’d call 36.56m games played as highly conservative on Draw 1000. So let’s turn to the Powerball official odds of winning.
The official Tatts Powerball odds of winning, based on 1 game, is 76,767,600:1 .. they publish the odds of winning in 12 games as 6,397,300:1 .. dividing the odds of 1 game by 12. Simple math. Let’s do the same thing.
Tatts’ odds of drawing numbers NOT played in Draw 1000 (causing the $50m jackpot) were, at a conservative estimate, the number of games played against the odds of one entry winning.
76,767,600:36,560,000 … divided: 2:1.01 .. marginally, 50%. They fairly much managed, on the flip of a coin, to draw numbers nobody had. On a conservative estimate. Now THAT’S LUCKY! Give me some of that luck, please!
Further, they’ve managed that “luck of the draw” 50% twice in the last few months with two $50m Powerball jackpots in the space of a few months.
Based on the above – it gets really murky when you consider the increased # games played and stakes in the $50m draw itself, and the sheer odds that only one person would have the correct numbers and take out first division alone, on a single entry.
Your chances of winning a pitiful Division 8 prize on a single entry are 110:1 .. 10:1 for a 12 game quick pick. 10% chance of winning. How many times have you bought a 50 game quick pick and not even managed Division 8?
In closing, from the horse’s mouth (no pun intended given Tatts’ TAB), they stated in their annual report “In the first half Tatts offered 15 large jackpots, compared with 22 in the same period last year. The company said this hampered lotteries revenue growth”
In other words, the more frequent the larger jackpots, the better the profits and investor returns.
So, it’s much better if people like you don’t win their lotteries, and that’s both a strategic vision of the company and an earnest hope of those who run it and market these lotteries to you with every tactic to tap into your hopes, dreams and convince you that you’ve got a chance in hell of winning.
Here’s a bit more food for thought… in the last six months we’ve had two Powerball $50m jackpots go to a single first division winner. One in Canberra, one in WA. That’s right, the whole $50m jackpot to a single ticket entry. The Canberra ticket was supposedly won a $5.55 ticket. Bet that makes you regular players and supporters of these games and syndicate entries feel awesome!
Think about the sheer number of entries – then park that, and think about the huge number of supposedly better odds system entries and massive syndicate entries. You know, the ones your local agent and Tatts advocate as a much better chance of winning. That didn’t win in either case. I’ve seen $1,300 powerball syndicates on sale for both draws (10 shares), $130,000 tickets a piece, that netted jack squat.
In the last Powerball $50m jackpot draw I bought a $210 syndicate entry, and won $5.80. That’s just a shade more money to buy a $5.55 ticket that could “scoop” me $50m! WINNING!
Got paid today, and like the true TattsLoser I am I once again got conned by the so-called odds and player Powerball.
Bought 5 x 12 Game Tickets. 60 Games Played. Cost: $49.00
Won: Zero. Of course.
In many ways I feel so ashamed to be the TattsLoser I am, continually going back and playing Tattersalls lotteries on the premise of odds and consistently losing far more often than these odds would have me believe.
I’m now down $3,269.03 in total playing Tatts lotteries. It’s a shameful amount of money to loose on these pointless lotteries. But at the same time, I take some solace in sharing my history on this blog. I know in my heart there’s many others out there who also play constantly and never win anything like the odds claim you should.
You’re not unlucky. You’re just a TattsLoser. Apparently we’re the “exception” rather than the rule, or so the mathematics would have you believe.
Share your own stories here.
I just managed to loan $150 against some goods at cash converters to play Saturday Tattslotto (4th Feb 2012). Playing the same numbers I have for over 5 years, which have never returned more than a $15 pay out here and there.
It’s wishful thinking that, given the dire straits I’m in with life and debt, that some luck might come my way tonight. After the travesty of the $30m powerball super draw, and after 5 years of playing the same numbers, I might actually have a windfall that could help lift me out of the doom and gloom I’m in.
According to the Lotto statistics, I’m well overdue for a decent win – I calculated I’ve spent some $25,000 or so on Saturday Tattslotto playing these numbers. Strictly statistically speaking I’m well overdue for at least a division 3 win. Even that I’d be happy with.
Will post an update later this eve, where I will either be working out what else I can pawn to get by for another week, or breathing a sigh of relief knowing I can pay some of the drastically overdue bills.
Just went and checked my tickets for Tattersalls Australian Powerball’s $30m mega draw – there was this faint glimmer of hope that it might have actually been worth playing. Of course, this was far from the case – why should a losing streak with far worse odds than published on the Tatts site change now?
Here’s the stats:
1 x System 9, 3 x System 8, 4 x System 7 and 597 standard games.
Winnings? Two division 5’s and a division 6. Total amount won: $66.25
Net position – lost $658.03.
Yes folks, whilst people like us will be off to pawn goods to get by for another week or two, someone out there is apparently $31m or so richer. If that’s you reading right now – oh, wait a minute, why would you be reading this, I’m sure you’re busy looking up luxury yacht’s or something.
A big heartfelt thanks (read “F*U*”) to Tattersalls for once again giving my hind quarter a work out whilst distracting me with thoughts of dreams coming true.
For those who don’t want to be TattsLosers, here’s a sure fire method of picking winning numbers:
- Take both your parents birth days (day of month)
- Take your own birth month, multiply by 2
- Take your year of birth, last two digits – if over 45, divide by two (a round up), if under 45 use the number as is
- Look at your watch when reading this – take the hour of the day, in 24 hour format
Alright, there’s your five lucky numbers. Now, go into your Tatts outlet and fill out the five numbers.
All you need now is the powerball, right? Look in your wallet – how much change do you have? Count up the individual number of coins.. the number of 20c pieces, 10c pieces, 5c pieces, $1 and $2 coins. What the total count is = your powerball.
Alright, you’re all set – check the powerball on the form. Now, here’s the secret to ensuring you WIN:
Take your form, scrunch it up, chuck it in the bin, and deposit the money you would have spent in your savings account. Instant winner!
A little while since my last post, apologies. You’d be forgiven for thinking that I might have had some great windfall. Actually, you wouldn’t be forgiven – of course that’s not the case. Statistically, Tattersalls odds might suggest you have a chance, but in reality it.. well, sucks.
Reviewing my lotto play results for January – overall I’ve lost a total of $1,174.25. I did have a bit of a win on Super 7’s last week, which I recycled into the promise of the $25m Powerball last Thursday. That was a total disaster:
1 System 8, 2 System 7’s and a whopping 456 standard games. Total cost: $452.90.
And I won a single Division 5 – a massive $25.90. So I lost $427. Pretty miserable.
Speaking of misery – because of that, and playing on Monday ($56.20 – won nothing) I ended up in a pretty awful situation today. I couldn’t afford lunch – I could barely afford to even drive into work and pay the parking.
So I worked all day today, last day on January, on a single cup of coffee. It’s all I could afford. All because I was stupid enough to keep thinking that Tattersalls odds are fair, and that I have a decent chance of winning.
It meant I couldn’t play Oz Lotto tonight. Oh well. I’m guessing I at least saved some money (that I didn’t have).
There’s a $30m Powerball jackpot this week. It’s also my pay week. So I guess I’ll be pouring a chunk of change down that drain. Pretty stupid, really, as it’ll mean I’ll be scratching for pennies the following week.
But look on the bright side – visit the Tattersalls website and you’ll hear of all the fantastic winners stories, and those awesome Flash ad graphics showing beaches and amazing sums of money. Makes you salivate, huh? Keep dreaming. Tatts gives you the chance to make dreams come true – all I was dreaming of today is I sure wish I could afford something to eat.
Thanks Tatts – you’ve bled over a grand from me over January. What I’ve won is so much less than what your published odds might indicate. Does this mean I’m in line for a big winner? Or am I destined to spend next week watching people eat and kick myself over how stupid I am to keep being conned by your lotteries?
Over and out folks. Hope somebody out there is having more luck than me.